[Economics] UK inflation: Supermarkets say price rises will ease soon

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A drop in the cost of wholesale food prices globally has not led to falls in the prices charged by UK supermarkets.

Inflation was expected to fall below 10% last month but soaring food prices meant it fell by less than expected.

"You would expect to see [global food price falls] reflected in supermarkets but we're not there yet," the Office for National Statistics told the BBC.

The retail industry body said there was a three to nine-month lag to see price falls reflected in shops.

"As food production costs peaked in October 2022, we expect consumer food prices to start coming down over the next few months," the British Retail Consortium said.

Inflation, which measures the rate of price rises, fell to 10.1% in the year to March from 10.4% in February, driven by food prices rising at their fastest rate for 45 years.

There were big jumps in prices for products including olive oil (up 49%), milk (up 38%) and ready meals (up 21%).

Campaigners point out that rising food prices hit poorer households the hardest, as they spend a greater proportion of their income on groceries.

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The war in Ukraine has driven up food prices around the world, but the UK has faced other problems on top of this - from Brexit red tape to labour shortages.

This year in particular, bad weather abroad led to shortages of some vegetables - a situation made worse by UK farmers producing less due to surging energy costs.

UK farmers have also argued that supermarkets are not paying a fair price for their produce - something the supermarkets deny.

The government's former food tsar Henry Dimbleby has said supermarkets having "fixed-price contracts" with suppliers means that when food is scarce, some producers opt to sell less to the UK and more elsewhere in Europe.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist for the Office for National Statistics, which provides the figures, said the agency did not make forecasts. But he said it was "certainly within the realm of possibility" that double digit inflation is sustained at least for another month with food prices continuing as they are.

 

Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65312127