[Economic] Outlook for credit access hits record low while inflation expectations jump, NY Fed survey shows

[NesT_YT]

 

Consumers are getting more pessimistic about inflation and their access to credit, according to the results of a monthly survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday.

Respondents expect prices to rise by half a percentage point in the year ahead, equating to a 4.7% annual gain, the central bank branch’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for March showed.

 

That’s the first time the near-term outlook increased since October and runs counter to the narrative from Fed officials that they expect inflation to subside as a series of interest rate increases take hold. In their most recent economic projections, policymakers said they anticipate inflation including food and energy prices to decline to 2.5% in 2024.

The current one-year outlook is down from 6.6% from the same time in 2022, but is running well ahead of the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. Expectations on a three- and five-year horizon were little changed, at 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively.

Consumers expect gas prices to rise by 4.6% in the year ahead, slightly less than the February outlook, and they see food prices up 5.9%, which was a decline of 1.4 percentage points from last month’s survey.

At the same time, consumers see their access to credit diminishing.